The Shadow of Coups in Africa: Is Nigeria Next?

"A great democracy must be progressive or it will soon cease to be a great democracy." – Theodore Roosevelt

In recent times, Africa has witnessed a worrisome increase in military coups with nations like Mali, Chad, and Guinea experiencing abrupt political shifts. This has prompted valid concerns about Nigeria, Africa's giant. With its vast economy and diverse population, the fear of military intervention hovers like a dark cloud.

"History teaches us that unity is strength, and cautions us to submerge and overcome our differences in the quest for common goals, to strive, with all our combined strength, for the path to true African brotherhood and unity." – Haile Selassie

Why Are Coups Happening More Frequently?

Authoritarian Drift: A disturbing tilt towards authoritarianism in Africa is eroding democratic principles. With weakened democratic institutions and reduced rule of law, the military finds fewer barriers in its way.

"Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction." – Ronald Reagan

Governance Failure: Frustrations arising from lack of basic services, economic hardships, and increasing insecurity make citizens question the legitimacy of their leadership.
Terrorism's Shadow: The threat of terrorism has amplified the chances of military coups. Militaries, in some instances, believe their intervention might be the solution to curb extremist activities.
Regional Organizations' Impotence: With entities like the African Union (AU) failing to counteract coups, there is a perceived carte blanche for militaries contemplating interventions.

What About Nigeria?

Given Nigeria's history with military coups, there's a tangible fear. The ongoing conflicts, weakened democratic institutions, and an apparent lack of international intervention present a potent cocktail.

However, hope isn't lost:

Economic Strength: Nigeria stands as the colossal economy of Africa. This financial muscle can serve as a deterrent against destabilization.

"Economic growth and political stability are deeply intertwined." – Pranab Mukherjee

Civil Society's Vigil: The active and vibrant civil society of Nigeria serves as the nation's moral compass, pushing for democracy and human rights.
Military's Own Divisions: Not all factions within Nigeria's military might support a coup, ensuring a lack of unified intent.

Mitigating The Threat

Nigeria can't solely bank on hope. Proactive measures are crucial:

Strengthen Democracy: Fair elections, rule of law, and a clear separation of powers can revive public trust.

"The best way to predict your future is to create it." – Abraham Lincoln

Address Insecurity's Roots: Combat corruption, reduce poverty, and address societal tensions to diminish the appeal of military intervention.
Build Bridges with Civil Society: Their role in mobilizing public sentiment against a coup is pivotal.
Vigilance: Monitor the military and have quick-response plans for any coup attempts.

In the face of challenges, Nigeria has the potential to create a lasting democratic legacy. By adopting robust preventive strategies, it can avert the coup trap and solidify its place as a democratic beacon in Africa.

"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing." – Edmund Burke

Thank you.

Aderogba Otunla