Get ready for the 2023 Nigerian elections! Two models have been used to predict the total number of votes and the percentage of voter turnout for the upcoming election. The first model used a linear regression approach and estimated the predicted total number of votes to be 44,117,576. In contrast, the second model, which used the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method, predicted the total number of votes to be 42,348,481.
Similarly, a linear regression approach predicted a percentage of 40.3% for predicting the rate of voter turnout, while the exponential smoothing method predicted a lower percentage of 38.9%. The models used historical data to make these predictions, and as with all predictions, they are subject to uncertainty and error. However, these models can provide valuable insights into what we can expect in the upcoming elections.
I hope this was informative.
Thank you.
Aderogba Otunla
#NigerianPresidentialElection2023 #2023elections #Nigeria #Election #AderogbaOtunla
REFERENCES:
- INEC's Infographics
- Conference Paper by Professor Sakah Saidu Mahmud - The 2015 General Elections: Voter Turnout, Voting Behavior and Democratic Consolidation in Nigeria
For those that love data here you go!
Google Spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lo0OkRASICClmSVnzgP94vFh51F4H0eohdKNrgwAVdQ/edit?usp=sharing
Thank you.
Comments
Post a Comment