GOOGLE SEARCH TRENDS FOR NIGERIA'S TOP 4 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES: A LOOK AT THEIR POTENTIAL TO BOOST THE NAIRA, CREATE JOBS, AND MORE

I still like Peter Obi, but this post was inspired by Emmanuel Ejay Salifu, an active supporter of Atiku Abubakar. In his words, “Happy New Year, I had been following with keen interest your Google trend post for elections, why did you stop?”. Well, I have been busy a bit, but immediately I heard Ruger say:

“See, I'm ahead of them, Asiwaju”…“Ni ilu mi” (Yoruba) which means, “In My Country” (English), the rhythm was symbolic as “Arise, O compatriots, Nigeria's call obey”.

As Nigeria's presidential race heats up, the public is eager to know more about the candidates vying for the country's highest office. One way to gauge the popularity and interest of these candidates is through Google search trends, which can give us a sense of what people are looking for when they search online.

In this article, we'll take a closer look at the Google search trends for Nigeria's top 4 presidential candidates – Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar, and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso – over the past 90 days, 30 days, and 7 days. We'll also examine some economic and political policies, and potential changes, and consider the policy options that Nigeria could consider to improve the value of the Naira relative to the US Dollar, and more.

SEARCH TRENDS - PAST 90 DAYS

(a) Asiwaju Bola Tinubu (45%)

(b) Peter Obi (33%)

(c) Atiku Abubakar (27%)

(d) Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso (4%)

SEARCH TRENDS - PAST 30 DAYS

(a) Asiwaju Bola Tinubu (62%)

(b) Peter Obi (40%)

(c) Atiku Abubakar (41%)

(d) Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso (5%)

SEARCH TRENDS - PAST 7 DAYS

(a) Asiwaju Bola Tinubu (52%)

(b) Peter Obi (35%)

(c) Atiku Abubakar (29%)

(d) Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso (5%)

DISCLAIMER - Trends data demonstrates search interest in a subject or person. It is not used to predict voting behaviors, and you can share this information freely.

You can find the published data and charts for each of the search trends periods on the following Google Sheets:

Past 90 Days: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IGNEwLKKiskcPAJMHyuLUdj1Bna3Ic5q/edit

Past 30 Days: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12jjeCpmmu6OLaqandoeFKJgdMp8-pSEN/edit

Past 7 Days: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1geiJWg91iwWLO6CJW7JwV-x6Lsa5yJcI/edit

1.0 POLICY OPTIONS TO IMPROVE THE VALUE OF THE NAIRA RELATIVE TO THE US DOLLAR

To make $1 equal NGN 100 would require significant changes to Nigeria's economic and political conditions. Here are some potential policy options to improve the value of the Naira relative to the US Dollar:

1. Implement sound economic policies: Maintaining fiscal discipline, reducing inflation, and maintaining low and stable interest rates can create a more stable economic environment and encourage investment. This can help to increase the demand for the Naira and improve its value relative to the US Dollar.

2. Promote economic diversification: A more diversified economy is less vulnerable to economic shocks and can provide a more stable foundation for long-term growth. The government can encourage the development of new industries and sectors, such as agriculture, manufacturing, and services, to reduce the reliance on oil and gas. This could help to increase the demand for the Naira and improve its value.

3. Encourage international trade and investment: Expanding international trade and investment can help to increase the demand for the Naira and improve its value relative to other currencies. The government can support this by negotiating trade agreements, promoting exports, and attracting foreign investment.

4. Address security concerns: High levels of insecurity can discourage investment and undermine economic stability. The government can address this by strengthening the criminal justice system, improving law enforcement, and addressing social and economic inequalities.

5. Reduce public debt: Reducing the level of public debt can improve investor confidence and increase the demand for the Naira. This could involve implementing debt management strategies, such as reducing spending and increasing revenues, to help bring down the debt-to-GDP ratio.

2.0 CREATING JOBS FOR 100 MILLION YOUTHS IN NIGERIA

Creating jobs for 100 million youths in Nigeria will be a significant challenge, given the size of the population and the current economic conditions. Here are some steps the government and private sector could take to increase employment opportunities:

1. Promote economic diversification: A more diversified economy is less vulnerable to economic shocks and can provide a more stable foundation for long-term growth. The government can encourage the development of new industries and sectors, such as agriculture, manufacturing, and services, to reduce the reliance on oil and gas. This could create jobs for young people in a variety of sectors.

2. Invest in human capital development: Investment in education and skills training can improve the quality of the workforce and increase the competitiveness of the economy. The government can support this by increasing access to education, particularly in underserved areas, and by providing training programs to help workers acquire new skills.

3. Foster entrepreneurship and small business development: Encouraging entrepreneurship and small business development can create jobs and stimulate economic growth. The government can support this by providing access to finance, reducing regulatory barriers, and promoting business training and education.

4. Promote trade and investment: Expanding international trade and investment can help to increase the demand for the Naira and improve its value relative to other currencies. The government can support this by negotiating trade agreements, promoting exports, and attracting foreign investment.

5. Use natural resources sustainably: Nigeria's natural resources can be a source of economic growth and job creation, but it is important to use them sustainably to ensure long-term prosperity. This could involve adopting responsible resource management practices, such as investing in technology to improve resource efficiency and protecting the environment.

Note: Measuring the FX value of the Naira/US Dollar as a benchmark can be useful for tracking economic performance, but it is just one indicator of a country’s economic growth. It is important to consider a wide range of economic and social indicators when evaluating the performance of the economy and the impact on the standard of living for citizens.

3.0 POTENTIAL TRADING PARTNERS FOR NIGERIA'S NATURAL RESOURCES

Nigeria's natural resources, particularly oil and gas, are an important source of economic growth and foreign exchange earnings. There are several countries around the world that could be potential trading partners for Nigeria, depending on the specific resources and products being traded:

1. Oil and gas: Nigeria exports a significant amount of oil and gas to countries around the world, including the United States, India, China, and European countries. These countries are likely to be important trading partners for Nigeria in the energy sector.

2. Solid minerals: Nigeria has a diverse range of solid minerals, including tin, limestone, coal, lead, and zinc. These minerals could be of interest to countries that have a demand for these resources, such as China, India, and European countries.

3. Agricultural products: Nigeria is a major producer of a wide range of agricultural products, including cassava, rice, maize, yams, and oil palm. These products could be of interest to countries that have a demand for them, such as China, India, and other countries in Africa.

Nigeria can engage in trade with other countries through both multilateral and bilateral channels. Multilateral trade refers to trade between three or more countries, often facilitated by international organizations such as the World Trade Organization (WTO). Bilateral trade refers to trade between two countries.

In terms of which countries Nigeria should work with on trade, it will be important to consider the specific resources and products being traded, as well as market conditions and the economic and political relationships between Nigeria and other countries.

4.0 ECONOMIC POLICIES TO PROMOTE FISCAL STABILITY, REDUCE INFLATION, AND MAINTAIN LOW AND STABLE INTEREST RATES

To promote fiscal stability, reduce inflation, and maintain low and stable interest rates, the government can consider implementing the following economic policies:

1. Fiscal policy: The government can adopt a balanced budget approach, which involves keeping spending and revenues in balance. This can help to reduce the risk of unsustainable levels of debt and avoid putting pressure on interest rates.

2. Monetary policy: The central bank can use a variety of tools, including setting interest rates, regulating the money supply, and using open market operations, to reduce inflation and maintain low and stable interest rates.

3. Exchange rate policy: A flexible exchange rate policy, which allows the exchange rate to be determined by market forces, can promote fiscal stability and reduce inflation by reducing the risk of exchange rate volatility and maintaining competitiveness.

4. Trade policy: Free trade policies that allow for the free flow of goods and services between countries can promote fiscal stability and reduce inflation by increasing competition and lowering prices for consumers.

5. Budget and debt management: Adopting policies to effectively manage the budget and debt, such as setting limits on spending and prioritizing investment in productive sectors, can promote fiscal stability and reduce the risk of unsustainable levels of debt.

It is important to note that these policies are just a few examples, and the specific policies that are most appropriate will depend on the unique circumstances of a given country.

5.0 THERE ARE SEVERAL STEPS THAT NIGERIA COULD TAKE TO ADDRESS ITS POWER GENERATION PROBLEM AND IMPROVE ELECTRICITY ACCESS:

1. Increase the capacity of existing power plants: Nigeria's power generation capacity is currently below its installed capacity, due in part to inadequate maintenance and fuel shortages. Increasing the capacity of existing power plants could help to improve electricity access.

2. Invest in new power plants: Building new power plants, using a variety of technologies such as coal, natural gas, hydroelectric, and renewable energy sources, could help to increase electricity generation capacity and improve access.

3. Improve transmission and distribution infrastructure: The transmission and distribution of electricity can be unreliable in Nigeria due to outdated and inadequate infrastructure. Investing in new transmission and distribution lines and upgrading existing infrastructure could improve the reliability of the electricity supply.

4. Promote energy efficiency: Improving energy efficiency can help to reduce the demand for electricity and reduce the cost of production. This could involve adopting energy-efficient technologies and practices, such as using LED lighting and energy-efficient appliances.

5. Encourage private sector participation: The private sector can play a role in improving electricity access in Nigeria by investing in power generation, transmission, and distribution. The government can encourage private sector participation by implementing policies that create a favorable business environment and by providing incentives for investment in the energy sector.

It is worth noting that Chile has made significant progress in increasing electricity access and improving the reliability of its power supply, thanks in part to the adoption of a market-based electricity system and the promotion of private sector participation in the energy sector. Nigeria could consider adopting similar approaches in order to address its power generation problem.

6.0 THERE ARE SEVERAL SECTORS THAT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE A LARGE NUMBER OF JOBS IN NIGERIA. 

These include:

1. Agriculture: The agricultural sector has the potential to create millions of jobs, especially in rural areas. This could include jobs in crop and livestock production, processing, and distribution.

2. Manufacturing: Developing the manufacturing sector could create jobs in the production of a wide range of goods, including textiles, clothing, food, and beverages.

3. Construction: The construction sector could provide employment in the building and repair of infrastructure, such as roads, bridges, and buildings.

4. Tourism: Nigeria has a rich cultural heritage and diverse natural attractions, and developing the tourism sector could create jobs in hotels, restaurants, and other tourism-related businesses.

5. Education: Investing in education could create jobs for teachers, administrators, and support staff, as well as improve the quality of education and increase access to education for all Nigerians.

6. Health care: Improving the health care system could create jobs for doctors, nurses, and other health care professionals, as well as improve access to quality health care for all Nigerians.

7. Small business development: Encouraging entrepreneurship and small business development could create jobs in a wide range of industries and stimulate economic growth.

It is important to note that creating 100 million new jobs will require a combination of efforts, including investments in education and training, infrastructure development, and policies that support business growth and job creation.

7.0 FINALLY

If there is a high rate of insecurity in Nigeria, it will definately affect the ability of businesses to operate and investors to feel confident in investing in the country. This will lead to a slower pace of job creation in some sectors, particularly in sectors that rely on physical infrastructure or that are located in areas with high levels of insecurity.

In this case, the list of sectors with the potential to create jobs may evolve to prioritize those that can operate remotely or that are less vulnerable to insecurity. For example, the digital economy, including online retail, e-commerce, and telecommuting, could be a promising area for job creation. The service sector, including education and health care, may also be less impacted by insecurity and could continue to provide employment opportunities.

It will also be important for the government to address the root causes of insecurity and to implement measures to improve security, such as strengthening the criminal justice system, improving law enforcement, and addressing social and economic inequalities. 

This can create a more stable and secure environment for businesses to operate and for job creation to thrive. Its written, the next president of Nigeria is one (1) of these three (3) candidates: Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, Peter Obi, and Atiku Abubakar.

As I said earlier, you can re-share this document and use freely as you want.

Thank you.

Aderogba Otunla