PETER OBI CAN WIN IN 2023
“This is quite a game, POLITICS. There are no permanent enemies, and no permanent friends, only permanent interests” - William Clay (Forbes)
The President of Nigeria is elected by a qualified plurality vote to serve a 4-year term. An absolute majority and at least 25% in two-thirds of the states is required for a candidate to be elected in the first round. If no candidate wins in the first round, there is a second-round between the top two candidates. (IFES Election Guide)
In 2019, the presidential election was won by President Muhammadu Buhari from the All Progressives Congress (APC) re-elected as Nigeria's president, defeating Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the People's Democratic Party (PDP) after winning 19 of the 36 states. Alhaji Atiku Abubakar was victorious in 17 states and the capital (BBC).
President Muhammadu Buhari had a total vote of 15,191,847 (APC), while Alhaji Atiku Abubakar had 11,262,978 total votes with a marginal difference of 3,928,869 votes.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-f0b25208-4a1d-4068-a204-940cbe88d1d3
Peter Gregory Obi is a Nigerian politician and businessman, who was the vice-presidential candidate in the 2019 general election discussed above, under the PDP. He was also the former governor of Anambra State, where he served two tenures.
In May 2022, he decamped from the PDP to the Labour Party (LP) to prepare for the 2023 presidential election, and for obvious reasons, there are possibilities that “he can win”.
Well, it's already making the news that the APC will be zoning the vice presidential ticket to the North East (NE) or North Central (NC) region of Nigeria, a possibility for the party to run a Muslim/Muslim ticket. This simply means that APC’s presidential candidate Bola Ahmed Tinubu is currently shopping for a VP for the 2023 election as we speak.
2023: We’ll support Tinubu if APC flies Muslim-Muslim ticket, says Fani-Kayode
I think the ruling party will disrupt itself 100% with this decision, but let's watch and see.
Let’s flashback a bit:
Muhammadu Buhari (Muslim) & Yemi Osinbajo (Christian)
Goodluck Jonathan (Christian) & Alh. M. Namadi Sambo (Muslim)
Umaru Musa Yar’Adua (Muslim) & Goodluck Jonathan (Christian)
Olusegun Obasanjo (Christian) & Atiku Abubakar (Muslim) e.t.c.
So, the ruling party is about to make a major mistake here, I guess Peter Obi can take advantage of this error. The APC thinks that they will be able to compensate with other positions i.e. Senate President e.t.c. but the effect of this move strategically is not the same.
Accordingly, Nigeria is divided into two (2) North and South, with six (6) regions and one (1) Federal Capital Territory (FCT) namely:
North Central (NC) with six (6) states Niger, Plateau, Benue, Kwara, Nasarawa, and Kogi.
North East (NE) also with six (6) states Borno, Bauchi, Yobe, Gombe, Adamawa, and Taraba.
North West (NW) with seven (7) states Kano, Katsina, Kaduna, Jigawa, Kebbi, Sokoto, and Zamfara.
South East (SE) with five (5) states Imo, Ebonyi, Abia, Enugu, and Anambra.
South South (SS) with six (6) states Edo, Delta, Akwa Ibom, Rivers, and Cross River.
South West (SW) with six (6) states Lagos, Oyo, Osun, Ogun, Ondo, and Ekiti.
In the 2015 elections, APC won 21 states.
Peter Obi can win the presidential election in 2023 with 21 states running a Christian/Christian ticket - Ekiti, Ondo, Ogun, Osun, Oyo, Cross River, Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Delta, Edo, Anambra, Enugu, Abia, Ebonyi, Imo, Taraba, FCT, Kogi, Benue and Plateau States.
If Peter Obi decides to run a Christian/Christian ticket, he should pick the Vice President from the South West (SW). The elections will run along ethno-religious lines, and I believe he can win 21 of the 36 states and the FCT.
Labour Party (LP) can win these states in the 2023 presidential election if citizens vote along ethno-religious lines, and they will 100%.
References:
Muslim-Muslim ticket: El-Rufai asks media to take religion out of politics, governance
Fixation on Muslim-Muslim ticket pathetic says El-Rufai
https://punchng.com/fixation-on-muslim-muslim-ticket-pathetic-says-el-rufai
I won in Kaduna on a Muslim-Muslim ticket; Tinubu can pick a Muslim running mate: El-Rufai
Most of the votes from the North will be shared between APC, PDP, and others, Peter Obi will take the majority of the votes from the South.
Peter Obi can win the presidency without winning Lagos and Kano. Peter Obi does not need to settle for any VP position offered by prospective collaborators, he just needs to leverage the Christian structures and platform already existing in the country.
APC has miscalculated and they have forgotten the strength and role of religious fate, as a strong causal mechanism influencing voters - this is APC’s BLIND SPOT, Peter Obi should take advantage of it 100% - it’s CHECKMATE
The first requirement of politics is not intellect or stamina but patience. Politics is a very long-run game and the tortoise will usually beat the hare - John Major
Thank you.
Aderogba Otunla
Works Cited
BBC. “Nigeria Presidential Elections Results 2019.” BBC, 26 February 2019, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-f0b25208-4a1d-4068-a204-940cbe88d1d3. Accessed 11 June 2022.
Forbes. “This is quite a game, politics. There... William Clay.” Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/quotes/9781/. Accessed 11 June 2022.
IFES Election Guide. “Elections: Nigeria President 2019.” IFES Election Guide, https://www.electionguide.org/elections/id/3100/. Accessed 11 June 2022.
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